Economic Indicators

What you'll learn

• ✓Define GDP, CPI, unemployment, PMI
• ✓Distinguish leading/coincident/lagging indicators

Lessons

1. 📺
   The Economist's Dashboard

   Why one data print can move trillions
   Start →
2. GDP: Sizing the Economy

   Finish the previous lesson to unlock
3. Reading the Labor Market

   Finish the previous lesson to unlock
4. Inflation Gauges

   Finish the previous lesson to unlock
5. PMIs and Softer Gauges

   Finish the previous lesson to unlock
6. Final Boss: Read the Wire

   Finish the previous lesson to unlock

Sources

All content is drawn from the sources below. We deliberately avoid unverified material.

• Employment Situation Technical Note
  US Bureau of Labor Statistics · institutional
  Authoritative reference for the monthly Employment Situation release: U-3, U-6, NFP definitions and release timing (first Friday, 8:30am ET).
  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm
• Alternative measures of labor underutilization (Table A-15)
  US Bureau of Labor Statistics · institutional
  Source for U-1 through U-6 definitions used in lesson 3.
  https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t15.htm
• Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA Handbook)
  US Bureau of Economic Analysis · institutional
  Methodology reference for the production, expenditure, and income approaches to GDP, plus the seasonally adjusted annualized rate convention used in lesson 2.
  https://www.bea.gov/resources/methodologies/nipa-handbook
• Gross Domestic Product, technical note
  US Bureau of Economic Analysis · institutional
  Confirms US quarterly GDP is reported at an annualized rate; basis for the US vs Eurostat reporting comparison in lesson 2.
  https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
• Quarterly national accounts methodology
  Eurostat · institutional
  Confirms Eurostat reports quarter-on-quarter percent change for euro area GDP rather than annualizing it. Used to contrast with the US BEA convention.
  https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/national-accounts/methodology
• Consumer Price Index Handbook of Methods
  US Bureau of Labor Statistics · institutional
  Definitions of CPI, headline vs core, basket construction. Backs up lesson 4.
  https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cpi/
• Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy
  Federal Reserve Board (FOMC) · institutional
  Official FOMC statement naming a 2 percent PCE inflation target, last reaffirmed January 2024. Source for 'Fed prefers PCE' in lesson 4.
  https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/FOMC_LongerRunGoals.pdf
• ISM Report on Business: Manufacturing PMI methodology
  Institute for Supply Management · institutional
  Reference for the 50 expansion/contraction threshold used in lesson 5 and 6.
  https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/
• S&P Global PMI methodology
  S&P Global Market Intelligence · institutional
  Methodology and 50 threshold for the global PMI surveys referenced in lesson 5.
  https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/mi/products/pmi.html
• Surveys of Consumers
  University of Michigan · institutional
  University of Michigan consumer sentiment methodology used in lesson 5.
  https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/
• Consumer Confidence Survey methodology
  The Conference Board · institutional
  Reference for the Conference Board CCI mentioned alongside the Michigan survey in lesson 5.
  https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
• Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services
  US Census Bureau · institutional
  Source for retail sales as a coincident growth indicator referenced in lessons 5 and 6.
  https://www.census.gov/retail/index.html